This may not be the best time to admit that I have a BA in Economics, from Macalester College in St. Paul. I also have graduate certificate in Meteorological Engineering, from the University of Oklahoma. Both institutions may invalidate my certificiates based on my entries to this topic. I like the first Richard Daley’s regard for experts, so I do not call myself one. My record as a successful weather forecaster is not great, but it’s better than most TV weather forecasters in the Duluth Market.
Weather forecasting and attempting to forecast a way out of a global financial collapse have some dynamics in common. There are multiple layers of complexity. There is a tendency to ignore The Major Force (the Sun) imposing change on the global system. We often fail to notice a major change before being swept away by disasters. Then we stop our ears at the clang of the Earth ringing like a bell.
One of my favorite weather observers described the Indian Ocean Tsunnami and its after effects as that bell. There may or may not be an esoteric relationship between natural disasters, political change, terrorism, and multiple layers of complexity emanating from that same region.
By the way, if you try to sell me something because Netflix, DirecTV, and facebook identify me with the Duluth Market, you haven’t done your homework. Duluth dominates, but we’re on our own for jobs, economic development, or services of any kind in Lake and Cook counties of Minnesota.
I have been following some of the blog postings from the Economist, “Free Exchange” and ” The World in 2009″. They’re not all outrageous, but here are two
One expert hopes the economic downturn marks the end of such “fads” as nutritional supplements and organic foods. She hasn’t done her homework at American upscale markets or among the “buy local” crowd.
Another expert thinks a total ban on imports of all kinds should be imposed to bring about an immediate spike in American GDP. If you want a really Great Depression that idea would be a fast track to it. A rats nest of bureauracy would spring to life. It would take more than the 40 years it took to undo the consequences of protectionism imposed during the 1930’s. If you work in the U.S. Department of Commerce or the European Economic Community in Brussels, you might think the idea sounds like fun. At least you would get renewed attention from multinational giants who know how to work the system. How about returning to the gold standard instead of the petro dollar standard. Would that be like vaporware in the tech bubble?